Should You Wait to Buy a Home in Jacksonville? 23 Years of Data Weigh In
"Should I buy now, or wait?"
I get asked this more than I get asked which side of the Buckman Bridge has better traffic. (Neither. The answer is neither.) And I get why people ask. A house is the biggest check most of us will ever write, and nobody wants to be the person who bought six months before rates dropped and has to hear about it at Thanksgiving.
So instead of giving you my opinion, which you'd expect a real estate agent to have, here's what 23 years of actual data say.
The study
AD Mortgage looked at every state plus DC, every year from 2000 to 2022, and ran two scenarios:
- Buy now. Purchase at that year's price, put 15% down, and finance at that year's average rate.
- Wait two years. Save 10% of household income each year in the meantime, then buy at whatever the price and rate turned out to be.
Whichever path cost less won that year.
Nationally, buying now won 61% of the time.
In Florida, buying now won 74% of the time, tied with California for the highest rate in the country. West Virginia was at the bottom at 39%, which is one of the few times you'll hear me say Florida beats anyone on housing costs.
The researchers pinned most of Florida's number on long-term price growth. That tracks with what anyone who grew up here has watched happen. I've seen parts of St. Johns County go from cow pasture to "starting in the high $400s" in what felt like one long weekend.
"But I'm waiting for rates to come down"
This is the big one. And on paper it makes sense: lower rate, lower payment, win.
The study found two stretches where it didn't work out that way:
- 2000 to 2002: Average rates fell from 8.05% to 6.54%. Buying now still won only 34% of the time, so waiting paid off there.
- 2013 to 2015: Rates barely moved, from 3.98% to 3.85%. But buying in 2013, the higher-rate year, won 84% of the time, because prices kept climbing while everyone waited for a discount that never came.
A lower rate two years from now doesn't undo what prices did in the meantime.
And a quick local reality check. A year ago, the 30-year fixed averaged 6.30%. This week, per Freddie Mac, it's 7.03%. A lot of people who sat out last fall waiting for rates to drop are now shopping at a higher rate than the one they passed on. I'm not saying that to be smug. Okay, I'm saying it a little to be smug. Mostly I'm saying it because nobody, including me, knows where rates will be next fall.
The winner flipped constantly
If you're waiting for the market to send a clear signal, here's how clear it's been:
- 2003 to 2005: Buying now won 94% to 100% of the time.
- 2007 to 2010: Waiting won every single year. That was the crash.
- 2015 to 2017: Buying now won 92% to 100% again.
- 2018: Buying now won just 2% of the time, because rates fell fast heading into 2020 before prices caught up.
- 2020 to 2022: Buying now won 100% of the time, all three years.
No economist called those swings in advance. Waiting for the "right time" is betting on something the professionals can't predict either. They just have nicer charts.
What's going on in Northeast Florida right now
Here's the part that's specific to us. According to the Northeast Florida Association of REALTORS® August report:
- The median sale price was $397,420, down 1.6% from July.
- Homes sat a median of 31 days before going under contract.
- There were 6,103 active listings, about 3.6 months of supply.
Translation: buyers here have more choices and more room to negotiate than they've had in years. Sellers are being more flexible on price, repairs, and closing costs than they were in 2021 and 2022, when you practically had to write a love letter to see a house in Mandarin.
That doesn't mean prices are about to crater. It means right now, you get to be picky. That hasn't always been true.
The real question
The study left some things out on purpose: equity, appreciation, property taxes, maintenance, and insurance. In Florida, that last one deserves its own blog post, and probably a support group.
So this isn't a case for buying no matter what. It's a case for ignoring the headlines and looking at your own numbers. Across all 23 years, being financially ready predicted a good outcome better than timing the market did.
Readiness comes down to three things:
- Your savings. Down payment, closing costs, and a cushion for the A/C that will absolutely die in August.
- Your budget. What the payment looks like at today's rate. Not a rate you're hoping for.
- Your comfort level. Whether you can look at the numbers and sleep fine.
If a home fits your budget today, you don't need permission from the Fed. And if it doesn't yet, that's fine too. We'll figure out what "ready" looks like for you and work backward from there.
Either way, if you want to talk through your numbers with someone who was born here, has sold a lot of homes here, and will tell you the truth even when it's not what you want to hear, text me at 904-654-9742. No pressure, no sales pitch.