Contract Cancellations Just Hit a 3-Year High — Here's What That Means If You're Selling in Northeast Florida
If you're thinking about listing your home in Jacksonville, St. Augustine, Ponte Vedra, or anywhere else around here, there's a number I want to put in front of you before we ever talk price.
Redfin just released new data showing that 14% of home purchase contracts nationwide fell apart before closing in July — the highest cancellation rate in almost three years. That's already a lot. But here in Jacksonville, it's worse: our local cancellation rate is 17.3%, which puts us in the top ten highest-cancellation metros in the entire country.
Translation: roughly 1 in 6 signed contracts in our market never makes it to the closing table. Nationally, it's closer to 1 in 7.
I don't say this to scare anyone off from selling. I say it because a signed contract isn't the finish line anymore — it's the start of a stretch where the deal can still come apart, and I'd rather you walk in knowing that than get blindsided by it.
Why Jacksonville is seeing more fallthroughs than most of the country
This isn't random. It comes down to buyer leverage, and buyers around here have more of it than they did a couple years ago:
- Active buyers nationally just hit a record low, and sellers now outnumber buyers by 51% — near an all-time high.
- Jacksonville was one of the biggest pandemic-era relocation destinations. That wave has slowed, but a lot of the supply it built hasn't.
- We've also got a steady stream of new construction competing with resale inventory, especially out in St. Johns County and the growth corridors.
- And yes — insurance and storm risk are part of the conversation now in a way they weren't five years ago. Buyers are factoring that into whether a deal still makes sense after inspection.
When buyers have that many options, an inspection finding, a low appraisal, or even a rate hiccup becomes a reason to walk instead of a reason to negotiate.
What this means for you if you're listing
It means pricing and prep matter more than they used to. A home that's priced right and shows well from day one gives a buyer fewer reasons to look for an exit. A home that's priced hopefully, with deferred maintenance left for the inspector to find, is exactly the kind of deal that becomes a statistic.
It also means I'm going to have a more direct conversation with you before we ever put a sign in the yard — about your price, about what an inspection is likely to turn up, and about what happens if we get a good offer that later needs a repair credit or a renegotiation. Sellers who go in with a plan for that conversation close. Sellers who don't tend to be the ones renegotiating from a weaker position three weeks in.
Here's the honest version of what I'll tell you at your listing appointment:
"Nationally, 14% of homes under contract right now are falling apart before closing — the highest in almost three years. Here in Jacksonville, it's 17.3%, one of the higher rates in the country. That's about 1 in 6 deals. It's not about your home, it's about how much leverage buyers have right now. So before we talk price, let's talk about how we price and prep this house so it's not the one that falls through."
That's not meant to alarm you — it's meant to get us on the same page early, so if an inspection turns up something minor or an appraisal comes in tight, we've already talked about how we'll handle it instead of scrambling in the moment.
If you're weighing whether to list this fall, let's talk through where your specific neighborhood falls on this — some pockets of Northeast Florida are holding up a lot better than others. Reach out anytime.
— Matt